Prediction of Renal Graft Function 1 Year After Adult Deceased-Donor Kidney Transplantation Using Variables Available Prior to Transplantation

Kidney transplantation is still the best therapy for patients with end-stage renal disease, but the demand for donor organs persistently surpasses the supply. A prognostic model using pre-transplant data for the prediction of renal graft function would be helpful to optimize organ allocation and avoid futile transplantations.
Material/Methods: Retrospective data of 2431 patients who underwent kidney transplantation between January 01, 2000, and December 31, 2012 with subsequent ten-year clinical follow-up in our transplant center were analyzed. Of these, 1172 patients met the inclusion criteria. Multivariable regression modelling was used to develop a prognostic model for the prediction of graft function after 1 year utilizing only pre-transplant data. The final model was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve.
Results: Donor age, donor serum creatinine, recipient body mass index, re-transplantations beyond the second kidney transplantation, and cold ischemia time had an independent, significant influence on graded renal graft function 1 year after kidney transplantation. AUROC analysis of the prognostic model was >0.700 for all GFR categories except KDIGO G5, indicating high sensitivity and specificity of prediction.
Conclusions: For improvement of renal graft function, organs from older donors or donors with high serum creatinine should not be used in obese recipients and for re-transplantations beyond the second one. Cold ischemia time should
be as short as possible.